April 25, 2008

Why housing is cyclical

By Marcie Geffner - Bankrate.com

It's no secret that the U.S. housing market is cyclical and in the midst of yet another painful correction. The causes and characteristics of these cycles vary, at least in some respects, but the implications for homebuyers, home sellers and homeowners remain remarkably reliable as the cycles roll by.

Housing cycles aren't all alike, yet over long periods of time a basic pattern can be discerned, says Mark Dotzour, chief economist of the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.

A cycle doesn't really have a start or a stop, but to pick a point at random, we might say that a housing cycle "starts" when economic activity heats up and interest rates rise. Higher interest rates make housing less affordable, so demand decreases and home prices fall.

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http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/mtg/20080417-housing-cycles-a1.asp